In case you have a constructive COVID take a look at, how doubtless is it that you just even have COVID? – Healthcare Economist

[Disclaimer: this post provides the math behind how to answer this question without actually answering the question]

Should you get a constructive take a look at for COVID-19, how doubtless are you to have the illness? Nicely, this will depend on quite a lot of elements together with the baseline prevalence of COVID-19 in your space in addition to the take a look at accuracy (i.e., sensitivity and specificity). Oftentimes, extremely correct checks is probably not a great predictor you probably have the illness if the prevalence could be very low (which sadly just isn’t the case at present for COVID-19).

So a key query is, if I get a COVID-19 constructive take a look at end result, how doubtless am I to have the illness. A video from three Blue 1 Brown helps clarify the maths behind this in an intuitive method, explaining Bayes Issue and variations in these calculations when chances in comparison with odds are used.

The video is a superb refresher on Bayesian statistics and their relevance for medical testing.

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